Perhaps the most important number needed to understand the state of the Portland real estate market is 15- as in 15 months of housing inventory.
This is record high inventory by wide margins. It means that at the current rate of sales, it would take 15 months to absorb all of those homes currently for sale. It means, quite simply, supply heavily outweighs demand. Keep in mind that a normal, balanced market between buyers and sellers has five months of inventory. Right now, normalcy is gone and those buyers in the market for real estate are finding favorable conditions.
However, the number of home buyers is low. That’s why only seven percent of Portland home sold in November 2008.
According to RMLS data, 1028 homes for sale in the Portland area went under contract in November 2008. In other words, there were 1028 properties in which the seller and buyer agreed to a transaction. This is 1028 properties out of an available 13,864 that were listed on the market. This equates to a 7% success rate for sellers.
Here are the percentages of listings (homes for sale in the RMLS) that found a buyer and went under contract in November 2008. They are termed "pending":
Pending = Area
11% = North Portland (59 of 545)
10% = Northeast Portland (116 of 1124)
9% = Southeast Portland (159 of 1802)
5% = Gresham, Troutdale (63 of 1188)
8% = Milwaukie, Happy Valley, Clackamas (93 of 1189)
7% = Oregon City, Canby (58 of 869)
5% = Lake Oswego, West Linn (48 of 1040)
7% = West Portland (127 of 1841)
6% = Northwest Washington County (36 of 635)
10% = Beaverton, Aloha (114 of 1190)
6% = Tigard, Tualatin, Sherwood, Wilsonville (88 of 1403)
7% = Hillsboro, Forest Grove (68 of 1038)
There are also those properties that not only don't sell, but expire (when the listing contract ends) or are cancelled (removed from the housing market by the homeowner via a listing termination). Here are the percentages of homes, also from last month, that expired or cancelled:
Expired/Cancelled % = Area
24% = North Portland (129 of 545)
22% = Northeast Portland (249 of 1124)
20% = Southeast Portland (364 of 1802)
16% = Gresham, Troutdale (186 of 1188)
23% = Milwaukie, Happy Valley, Clackamas (277 of 1189)
17% = Oregon City, Canby (146 of 869)
16% = Lake Oswego, West Linn (167 of 1040)
16% = West Portland (294 of 1841)
19% = Northwest Washington County (120 of 635)
18% = Beaverton, Aloha (216 of 1190)
16% = Tigard, Tualatin, Sherwood, Wilsonville (218 of 1403)
17% = Hillsboro, Forest Grove (173 of 1038)
Tuesday, December 23, 2008
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2 comments:
I am wondering if there is data out there that shows the listing vs. the price actually paid for the homes that are selling? The reason I ask is, I'm a soon-to-be buyer and I'm wondering, in this market, what is a reasonable offer? If a house has sat on the market for up to 15 months, and hasn't sold at the asking price, what is it reasonable to offer? 5% less than listing price? 10% less?
Hi, the information you seek is available, but it has to be researched. The Realtor helping you should be able to find out what selling prices have been compared to the asking prices specific to the neighborhood where a buyer is looking. With today's market being a buyer's market, sellers are receiving low offers even on houses fairly new to the market. Generally speaking, however, it's the homes that have sat the longest (such as 15 months)which get "lowball" offers. In the end, a reasonable offer is one that gets accepted.
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