2007 vs. 2006 Home Sales Comparison

Northwest Washington County, you are the one and only.

Out of all Portland metro, NWC is the only area where sales up in 2007. And even that is just by a margin. Home sales have increased there by .3% year-to-date.

As for the rest of the area, here are the pending sales 2007 vs. 2006:

Change = Area

+0.3% = Northwest Washington County
-6.5% = Northeast Portland
-10.7% = Oregon City, Canby
-12.0% = Lake Oswego, West Linn
-12.7% = Southeast Portland
-13.6% = Hillsboro, Forest Grove
-14.7% = Gresham, Fairview, Troutdale
-15.6% = Milwaukie, Clackamas, Happy Valley, Damascus
-16.3% = Tigard, Tualatin, Sherwood, Wilsonville
-17.2% = Beaverton, Aloha
-17.9% = West Portland
-19.3% = North Portland

Depreciation Hits An Area, Says RMLS

Surprising? Maybe.

Inevitable? Perhaps.

Fact? Yes.

One of the 12 areas that the RMLS tracks has experienced a depreciation in home values, according to the RMLS and its system for calculating real estate appreciation in Portland metro.

That area is #145 which tracks Milwaukie, Clackamas, Happy Valley, and Damascus. According the RMLS, real estate values are down - 1.7% in these areas based on a comparison of the average sales price for the last 12 months with the 12 months before.

Here are the appreciation rates for the rest of Portland and the suburbs, listed from highest to lowest:

Rate - Area

8.9% - Southeast Portland
8.8% - Gresham, Fairview, Troutdale
8.7% - Hillsboro, Forest Grove,
8.5% - North Portland
5.9% - Northeast Portland
5.4% - Tigard, Tualatin, Sherwood, Wilsonville
3.8% - Lake Oswego, West Linn
3.8% - Beaverton, Aloha
3.7% - Oregon City, Canby
3.7% - West Portland
2.7% - Northwest Washington County
-1.7% - Milwaukie, Clackamas, Happy Valley, Damascus

Don't, Don't, and Don't...

A couple of years ago I helped a homebuyer from California buy a house here in Portland. That’s pretty normal, except for a comment the buyer made right after closing.

He was keeping his job in California, but was going to telecommute from Portland. Curiously I asked, “How’s work?”

His response stunned me. “I don’t know. I quit a week ago.”

I was surprised, yes, because he quit his job. That’s big news for everyone. But I was more surprised that he still received the loan to close on his house. You see, it’s normal for lenders to call employers right before closing to make sure the borrower (homebuyer) is still earning a living. Lenders like the idea of getting paid.

I guess the lender didn’t make that call. Maybe it was the real estate frenzy from a few years ago that prevented the call.

Regardless, that frenzy’s gone and lenders are cracking down on who gets a loan. I have a hunch that call would be made today.

So forgive me for stating the obvious, but if you go under contract to buy a home, don’t:

Quit your job
Buy new furniture for the house
Buy a new car
Run up credit card charges
Don’t change your ability to repay the loan

Lenders can and do pull credit history and credit scores right before closing. Your big purchases can and should wait.

PDX Home Values Up, Says Study

Another housing study shows that Portland’s real estate market has experienced appreciation, not depreciation, during the last 12 months.

First American LoanPerformance analyzes housing trends across the U.S. and it states Portland has appreciated 2.83% in the last year. That’s not great appreciation, but certainly more rare than not nowadays.

Interestingly, the company created a map showing the rate of appreciation or depreciation across the country. In this map, you can see that real estate in the West is definitely down, but the Northwest seems to have handled the market well.

Portland, A Top Ten Buyers Market

Portland is one of 2007’s top ten buyer’s markets, according to a new report.

Housing Predictor, which forecasts local housing markets across the U.S., says that the best buyers markets in the country have the highest probability of reaching their forecasted appreciation.

In regards to Portland, the report states:

“Portland, Oregon has also been added to the top 10 buyers markets, mainly because of its long endurance for appreciation with the growth of industry producing higher employment levels in the community. Portland has seen home prices nearly triple in the last decade in some areas. The volume of sales in Portland, however, like many other areas of the nation have begun to slide over the past few months, but it should be at least several months before pricing levels begin to deteriorate.”

Here are the top 10 buyer’s markets for 2007:

1. Albuquerque, NM
2. McAllen, TX
3. Salt Lake City, UT
4. Austin, TX
5. Seattle, WA
6. Houston, TX
7. Biloxi, MS
8. El Paso, TX
9. Portland, OR
10. Dallas, TX

Portland's Pedal Power

Happy Holidays Everyone.

At Thanksgiving dinner last night, a friend mentioned the New York Times article on Portland’s cycling craze. Some people at our party hadn’t seen it, and quite often people who are moving to Portland tell me they love the city’s reputation for being bike friendly.

So with that... here’s the story.

And some excerpts in case you just want the highlights:

“...Cyclists have long revered Portland for its bicycle-friendly culture and infrastructure, including the network of bike lanes that the city began planning in the early 1970s. Now, riders are helping the city build a cycling economy…

…In a report for the City of Portland last year, the firm estimated that 600 to 800 people worked in the cycling industry in some form. A decade earlier, Ms. Birk said in an interview, the number would have been more like 200 and made up almost entirely of employees at retail bike stores…

…The city regularly ranks at the top of Bicycling Magazine's list of the best cycling cities and has the nation's highest percentage of workers who commute by bike, about 3.5 percent, according to the Census Bureau. Drivers here are largely respectful of riders, and some businesses give up parking spaces to make way for bike racks…”

Average Selling Time? SE PDX Shortest, Lake Oswego Longest

Selling your home? Get ready to flip the calendar a few times.

The average time on the market to sell a Portland area home now registers at more than two months- 64 days to be exact.

Here are the average days on the market that it's taking to sell real estate in Portland and the suburbs, listed from shortest time to longest:

DOM - Area

48 – Southeast Portland
55 – Northeast Portland
59 – North Portland
59 – Gresham, Fairview, Troutdale
59 – Beaverton, Aloha
61- Tigard, Tualatin, Sherwood, Wilsonville,
63 – Northwest Washington County
64 – West Portland
64 – Hillsboro, Forest Grove
68 – Milwaukie, Clackamas, Happy Valley, Damascus
77 – Oregon City, Canby
82 – Lake Oswego, West Linn

Green Getaway Calls Portland Home

The environment, public transportation and the outdoors.

Those are just three categories where Portland ranked 1st in the country, according to a poll by Travel and Leisure Magazine & CNN Headline News.

The media outlets polled readers of the top 25 city destinations in the U.S. and ranked various catergories.

Regarding Portland, they wrote, “Want a green getaway? This city is rated the most environmentally friendly, with great parks to boot.”

Portland ranked highest in the country for: Public transportation, environmental awareness, access to outdoors, cityscape, pedestrian friendliness, & public parks/spaces.

It finished second in the country for: peace and quiet, cleanliness, and coffee.

Here’s a link to Portland’s rankings.

Current Home Prices for Portland Metro

Eye-popping real estate appreciation is long gone, but “slow and steady” is right at home throughout Portland metro.

Here are the most current average and median sales prices, listed from most expensive to least expensive:

Average & Median = Area

$560,400 & $465,000 = Lake Oswego, West Linn
$463,900 & $379,800 = West Portland
$418,400 & $385,000 = Northwest Washington County
$375,600 & $339,900 = Tigard, Tualatin, Sherwood, Wilsonville
$337,600 & $300,000 = Milwaukie, Clackamas, Happy Valley, Damascus
$330,500 & $302,900 = Oregon City, Canby
$321,700 & $282,500 = Northeast Portland
$298,400 & $270,000 = Hillsboro, Forest Grove
$289,500 & $260,000 = Beaverton, Aloha
$286,600 & $250,000 = Southeast Portland
$281,500 & $259,900 = Gresham, Fairview, Troutdale
$265,800 & $252,000 = North Portland

Slight Dip, But Still Plenty of Homes For Sale

For the first time since February of this year, housing inventory in Portland has decreased.

Not by much, mind you, but just enough to stop the ever-growing trend of more listings and homes for sale.

Inventory now stands at 8.4 months, reflecting October 2007's market activity, which is slightly less than the previous month's supply of 8.6 months. This means that if no other homes were listed for sale in the Portland metro area, the supply would dry up in 8.4 months.

Does this signify a new trend towards increased activity and faster sales? Probably not. I seriously doubt it especially when you consider that the traditionally slow time of the year is upon us- the holidays.

This just means that October 2007 wasn't as bad as September 2007. Portland's buyers market remains strong. Note that inventory today is almost double from a year ago. For the record, there are 15,567 active listings on the market.

As for prices, they're up.

The year-to-date average sales price of a Portland area home is $342,500. In 2006, the average was $322,500. Isolating on the month of October 2007 only, the average sales price was $341,800 compared to $322,900 in October 2006.

The year-to-date median sales price of a Portland area home is $290,000. In 2006, the median price was $270,000. Again isolating October 2007 only, the median sales price was $287,900 compared to $270,000 in October 2006.

In October 2007, the average market time to sell a home was 64 days.

More data: Through the year, closed sales are down 11.3% while new listings are up. 8.8%.

Over the coming days, I will breakdown the average market times, appreciation rates, average & median sales prices, and number of sales for all parts of Portland as well as the suburbs.

Study Eats Away At Portland

No surprise- Portland ranks 3rd in the country in the percentage of adults who eat organic foods.

A recent analysis by Scarborough Research shows that the West Coast is tops for organic consumers with San Francisco leading the way.

The study reported that 35% of San Franciscans eat organic foods. Seattle was second with 32% and Portland followed at 27%.

"The top five markets for organics consumers have youth, higher than average annual household incomes, and a fitness mentality in common," said Alisa Joseph, vice president, advertiser agency services, Scarborough Research. "Cities such as San Francisco and Seattle have long been known for active, healthful lifestyles, and therefore it makes sense that these are the top markets for organics users…”

Here are the highest ranking cities and a link to the report.

Percentage - City

35% - San Francisco
32% - Seattle
27% - Portland
26% - Washington, D.C.
26% - Denver

New Homes Prices: 2007 vs. 2006

How much do new homes cost in Portland and the suburbs?

Portland State’s Center for Real Estate has published its’ 3rd Quarter Real Estate Report. It lists the current median price of news homes now in 2007 compared to 2006.

Lake Oswego tops the lists in price with a big jump over the last year. The report explained that the numbers here can be skewered when large developments appear.

Here are the sales prices for new homes only:

3rd Quarter 2007 vs. 3rd Quarter 2006 = Area

$1,420,000 vs. $907,800 = Lake Oswego
$640,500 vs. $614,200 = West Portland
$590,792 vs. $499,950 = Northwest Washington County
$532,030 vs. $469,626 = Tigard, Tualatin, Sherwood, Wilsonville
$450,000 vs. $551,653 = Milwaukie, Clackamas, Happy Valley, Damascus
$407,075 vs. $359,032 = Hillsboro, Forest Grove
$329,500 vs. $296,000 = Gresham, Troutdale, Fairview
$327,200 vs. $352,475 = Oregon City, Canby
$317,250 vs. $410,670 = Beaverton, Aloha
$285,425 vs. $274,850 = Northeast Portland
$280,000 vs. $297,500 = Southeast Portland
$371,005 vs. $367,228 = Overall

Graph Demonstrates, Compares Portland Appreciation

I published a post a few days ago about a study listing Portland as one of five major cities in the U.S. to have experienced real estate appreciation over the last year.

In connection with that study, Time Magazine issued a graph to better show the trends of growth and decline for the major cities in the study.

Here’s the graph, which I think is neat.

And as for Time, it did make a few comments about the Portland: “Then you've got Seattle and Portland, which have seen substantial if not staggering price gains and are still living in their own happy, Northwestern alternative reality in which the real estate bust is just something you read about in your favorite newsweekly .”

More Than Ever, Be Ready!

If you're in the market to buy a home in the Portland area, you need to have your finances in order.

Unlike previous years, lenders aren't handing out money left and right to would-be borrowers. In fact, it's just the opposite. Lenders are extremely picky right now as to who gets their money- in other words, who gets a loan.

And this crackdown includes "good" borrowers- those with good credit, a down payment, secure employment, etc. A recent survey of loan officers by the Federal Reserve showed that about 40 percent of banks said they tightened terms for prime mortgages in the prior three months for people with the best credit records.

Jeff Naylor, a mortgage planner in Portland who helps local homebuyers, was kind enough to provide some dos and don’ts for getting a mortgage:

1. The first thing you should do is take a good look at your budget and decide about how much you can afford as far as a monthly payment is concerned.
2. Do not finance any large or small purchases as this could affect your debt to income ratio.
3. Do not apply for additional credit because numerous inquiries will affect your credit in a negative manner. If a new account shows up on the credit bureau this is also seen as a negative factor in regards to credit scoring
4. Try to pay down your consumer debt to so that the ratio of credit used to credit available is on the low side.
5. Then you should talk to a lender who can show you how much house that monthly payment will get you. Things don't always add up perfectly that's why you need a good lender to let you know where you stand. If you're not quite ready yet or if you don't qualify, a good lender should also be able to help you get there.

Jeff Naylor is a senior mortgage planner with Equity Home Mortgage in Portland.

Portland Real Estate Tidbits From The 3rd Quarter

Here are some news and notes from the latest Quarterly Real Estate Report issued by Portland State’s Center for Real Estate.

According to PSU, the September 2007 median price of a Portland area home was $274,900. That’s up from the 2006’s median price of $267,000.

On that note, PSU states real estate appreciation in Portland has risen 3% during this time span while national home values have dropped 4.2%.

Interestingly the report says that national sales are down 19%, while Portland’s home sales have fallen by 32%, but that the housing market here has resiliency because of the urban growth boundary (UGB) which limits construction.

And the PSU report goes on to say that the areas of Portland with the greatest appreciation are found in the inner city: Northeast Portland and Southeast Portland. Lake Oswego & Milwaukie/Clackamas are experiencing price declines, according to PSU’s findings.

Marketing Homes? Choose Your Words Wisely

There was a real estate story on the news recently- and for once the word, “bust” was not used.

Speaking of words, that was the point of the story. The ABC-TV affiliate, KATU, here in Portland ran a story about the actual language used in advertising homes for sale and its’ impact on the actual marketing.

A study (there’s a study for everything nowadays isn’t there?) found that homes described as “beautiful” sold 15 percent faster and for more money than comparable homes. The study also showed that the word “handyman” helped houses sell much quicker.

The story that aired interviewed two Portland Realtors -I must have been busy that day ;) - with differing points of view.

One agent said that language should help people feel a certain way. The other agent said that ads should stick to the basics- spell out the number of bedrooms, bathrooms, etc.

Personally, I agree with the first Realtor. Every house has bedrooms and bathrooms, a kitchen, a living room, etc. But every house is also unique and that’s the selling point. Is the home great for entertaining? Is it on a wooded lot with a sense of privacy? Is it a cosmetic fixer? In other words, there property offers a certain lifestyle whatever that might be.

But like the story says, pricing is key. And that’s on the money. Here’s the story.

Portland Trails National Inventory Numbers

Okay, Portland’s housing inventory is up… but at least it’s not Los Angeles or Chicago.

Yes, Portland has 16,000 homes for sale. Los Angeles, on the other hand, has more than 100,000 properties on the market and Chicago more than 80,000.

A new report by ZipRealty shows that big cities not only have higher inventories, but a trend towards price reductions.

In eight of the top 10 U.S. cities with the biggest housing inventories, at least 40 percent of the homes that are listed have reduced their prices. A percentage in the high 30s is indicative of a near-equilibrium market, according to ZipRealty.

Below is a list of the 10 U.S. cities with the highest housing inventories as of September 2007 and their Price Reduction Index (PRI), which reflects the percentage of homes currently listed on the market whose listing price has been reduced.

Top 10 Cities With Highest Housing Inventories

Los Angeles: 111,269 houses for sale; PRI, 45.9 percent
Chicago: 82,839 houses for sale; PRI, 40.8 percent
Miami: 79,154 houses for sale; PRI, 38.1 percent
Tampa: 58,601 houses for sale; PRI, 42.3 percent
Phoenix: 54,536 houses for sale; PRI, 47.1 percent
Washington: 52,854 houses for sale; PRI, 46.8 percent
Dallas: 47,097 houses for sale; PRI, 35.9 percent
Boston: 43,158 houses for sale; PRI, 48.4 percent
Sacramento: 40,195 houses for sale; PRI, 51.4 percent
Houston: 39,332 houses for sale; PRI, 36.7 percent

Foreclosure Rates: Oregon vs. National

Oregon foreclosures continue to rise, but far behind the national pace.

Oregon foreclosures increased roughly 10% from the 2nd Quarter of 2007 to the 3rd Quarter. Nationally, the increase was 30%.

Over the last year, Oregon’s foreclosure rose by about 50%. Nationally, the foreclosure rate was about 100%.

At this time, there are 1 foreclosure filings in Oregon for every 578 households. This ranks Oregon 31st in the U.S. for foreclosure rate. The national average is one filing for every 196 households. Nevada, which ranks 1st or worst in the country, has one filing for every 60 households.

The full report can be found at RealtyTrac.

Flipping Homes In Portland? Get Your License

Despite the changing real estate market here in Portland, fixers remain very attractive to people interested in flipping homes.

Maybe it’s all of the home remodeling shows or the belief there’s a quick buck to be made. Regardless, the business of flipping homes doesn’t appear to be slowing down especially in the inner city.

But did you know that you need to have your contractor's license to legally flip a home in Oregon?

"Oregon law requires anyone who works for compensation in any construction activity involving improvements to real property to be licensed with the Oregon Construction Contractors Board (CCB). This includes roofing, siding, painting, carpentry, concrete, on-site appliance repair, heating and air conditioning, home inspections, tree service, plumbing, electrical, floor covering, manufactured dwelling installations, land development and most other construction and repair services.”

A CCB license is also required for: those who purchase homes with the intent to fix them up and resell them, even if they do not perform the work themselves."

For more information, click on this link.

Report: Portland Experiences Rare Appreciation

A national report shows that Portland is only one of five major markets in the U.S. where home prices continue to rise.

Home prices in Portland rose by 2.8% in August compared to 2006, according to the SP/Case-Shiller home price index.

5 Cities Where Prices Rose

5.7% = Seattle
5.6% = Charlotte
2.8% = Portland
0.8% = Atlanta
0.5% = Dallas

15 Cities Where Prices Fell

-10.1% = Tampa
-9.3% = Detroit
-8.3% = San Diego
-8.0% = Phoenix
-7.6% = Las Vegas
-7.2% = Washington, D.C.
-5.7% = Los Angeles
-4.2% = San Francisco
-4.1% = Cleveland
-4.0% = Minneapolis
-3.8% = New York
-3.6% = Boston
-1.3% = Chicago
-0.4% = Denver

Portland, 2nd Best City For Pets

… And another pet friendly recognition comes Portland’s way.

Forbes Magazine ranks Portland as the second best city in the country for pets. Colorado Springs, Colorado finished first.

Forbes determined the ranking by measuring which cities had the most public park acreage, including those parks tailored specifically for dogs (the second most common pet after cats and the ones that require the most outdoor facilities), the most pet supply and service businesses, and the most veterinary facilities. Forbes also looked at which cities typically charge the least for veterinary care and measured the statistics on both a per capita basis, or against each city's human population, and on a "pet capita" basis--against the city's estimated pet population. Those cities with the most vets, public parks, dog parks and pet businesses, both per person and per animal, shot to the top of the list.

Regarding Portland, Forbes wrote, “Portland has 31 parks dedicated to dogs, the most in the country after New York, and the most per capita by a wide margin.” Here’s a link to Portland’s snapshot.

Portland Home Sales: 2007 vs. 2006

Year-to-date, there is only area in Portland metro that actually has more pending sales than at this time in 2006. That area is Northwest Washington County (which by the way currently has one of the area's lowest appreciation rates during this same time span).

Here is how pending sales compare right now in 2007 year-to-date, compared to 2006:

Increase = Area

+2.4% = Northwest Washington County


Decrease = Area

-5.6% = Northeast Portland
-10.2% = Oregon City, Canby
-11.3% = Lake Oswego, West Linn
-12.0% = Southeast Portland
-12.2% = Hillsboro, Forest Grove
-14.4% = Milwaukie, Clackamas, Happy Valley, Damascus
-14.7% = Gresham, Troutdale
-15.4% = Beaverton, Aloha
-17.2% = West Portland
-17.5% = Tigard, Tualatin, Sherwood, Wilsonville
-17.7% = North Portland