Tuesday, February 28, 2006
Will Portland's housing inventory drop soon?
I wrote a couple of weeks ago that the number of homes for sale in Portland is at its’ highest level in a year. That’s true. Inventory is at 3.2 months, meaning the supply of homes would dry up in 3.2 months if no other homes were listed for sale.
Yet, I see homes selling fast. Up until a few weeks ago, I didn’t feel buyers needed to rush with their decisions. I still don’t feel that way, but buyers shouldn’t mull things over too long either.
I’m seeing homes that are priced right sell quickly (not in record time, but quickly). So, I just think buyers need to be prepared to act because real estate in Portland is hot for this time of year- and it’s probably going to get hotter.
I’ll have new housing inventory figures in a week or so.
Sunday, February 26, 2006
Moving to Portland - from California
Today, The Oregonian featured a front page story about the thousands of people who are relocating to Oregon and why so. No surprise, real estate plays a factor.
Here’s the article.
Californians are riding a new wave to Oregon
Migration - They really are moving north in droves, and experts say it's just the start
Oregon's new marketing slogan, "We love dreamers," sounds tailor-made for Californians.
The campaign must be working: They're moving north in the largest numbers in a decade.
Last year, more than 27,000 drivers replaced California licenses in Oregon. And one of every dozen residents of the Medford and Bend areas lived in California five years ago, a recent study shows.
As Oregon braces for a growth spurt -- another million residents projected by 2025 -- Californians clearly will play a huge role in reshaping the state.
Experts say the influx is just getting started.
Baby boomers begin turning 60 this year, meaning more will cash in on California's sky-high real estate market to retire in style in Oregon. Surging home prices nudge first-time buyers across the border, too.
To native Oregonians, a $400,000 house or $50 sushi dinner can sound exorbitant; to many Californians, it seems like a bargain.
Oregonians often blame Golden State refugees for driving up living costs and forcing suburban spread.
There's some truth to that. Wealthy newcomers, wherever they're from, put a premium on Oregon residency by boosting demand. Neighborhoods, water lines and roads are built to keep up.
But for all of Oregon's growth, residents' personal values have stayed remarkably consistent, a new Portland-area survey shows. Pollster Adam Davis says newcomers seek out Oregon ideals. He dubs it the "my kind of people" effect.
As Oregon braces for a growth spurt -- another million residents projected by 2025 -- Californians clearly will play a huge role in reshaping the state.
Experts say the influx is just getting started.
Baby boomers begin turning 60 this year, meaning more will cash in on California's sky-high real estate market to retire in style in Oregon. Surging home prices nudge first-time buyers across the border, too.
To native Oregonians, a $400,000 house or $50 sushi dinner can sound exorbitant; to many Californians, it seems like a bargain.
Oregonians often blame Golden State refugees for driving up living costs and forcing suburban spread.
There's some truth to that. Wealthy newcomers, wherever they're from, put a premium on Oregon residency by boosting demand. Neighborhoods, water lines and roads are built to keep up.
But for all of Oregon's growth, residents' personal values have stayed remarkably consistent, a new Portland-area survey shows. Pollster Adam Davis says newcomers seek out Oregon ideals. He dubs it the "my kind of people" effect.
Many plunge into civic life. Relocated Californians run Oregon's first professional lacrosse team and splashiest new high-tech firm.
As coastal real estate agent Sybil Calhoun tells California clients, "You're going to be in good company."
Price, lifestyle are lures
California always provides Oregon's largest share of newcomers.
But migration fluctuates, and the recent spike is no accident, says Oregon state demographer Kanhaiya Vaidya.
For one thing, Oregon's rebounding economy gives outsiders confidence in the state's future. For another, California's home prices have reached an all-time high.
"In some areas of Oregon, real estate isn't that cheap," Vaidya says. "But if you're coming from California, you can still buy a house and have some savings."
The average dwelling sets you back more than $700,000 in San Francisco and $500,000 in Los Angeles. First-time buyers are shut out of the market. And baby boomers tap into a whopping nest egg for retirement.
Natalee Stone understands the phenomenon for both generations.
The 25-year-old and her husband, Matthew, moved from the San Francisco area to Hillsboro last fall. For mortgage payments half as big as their California rent check, they get twice the space -- and can afford Matthew's college tuition.
Meanwhile, Natalee's parents retired in California last year and sold their home. The profit was so big, they take cruises when they're not checking in on the house they're building in Forest Grove.
"People are moving up here to survive," Natalee says. "We had to, if we wanted to own anything without taking out a $600,000 loan."
Adjusting to Oregon's slower-paced lifestyle takes time.
Women wear less make-up. Natalee zooms past fellow walkers at the mall. She reminds herself not to honk when another car dawdles.
That vibe enticed Garth Catterall-Heart and Dayadevi Heart-Catterall during a 2004 trip.
The fiftysomething couple sold their Northern California ranch, bought a house in rural Yamhill County and invested in a spiffy motor home. Tax-free shopping saved $20,000 on the new wheels.
Using Oregon as home base, they blaze trails across the West. An Internet connection is all Garth needs to run part-time photography and software ventures; Dayadevi's career as an artist is portable.
"Baby boomers are downsizing," Garth says. "More of us are retiring, getting mobile homes, not keeping big places in California."
This generation is more likely than its predecessors to relocate, says Helen Dennis, a retirement expert from Southern California.
Boomers have changed jobs and cities so much, they're not intimidated by a move. And, in California, selling a home turns a middle-class retiree into a millionaire.
"For previous generations, the status quo was OK," Dennis says. "The upcoming generation is looking for a better quality of life. If that's the case and you love the outdoors, Oregon seems like a really good choice."
Leaving mark on Oregon
Newcomers change Oregon's landscape, literally and figuratively.
Once-sleepy cities, from Newberg to Redmond, teem with subdivisions. Home prices scramble upward in idyllic towns such as Hood River and Ashland.
Joe Cortright, a Portland economist, says escalating prices come down to demand. Low interest rates and the cachet of a hot housing market play as big a role as transplants.
And Californians import more than money. Many offer political expertise or volunteer hours.
California newcomers, who account for half of Calhoun's real estate business, tend to be Internet-savvy boomers. They already know Florence has a thriving art scene.
Soon, she says, they help plan a hospital or library. "They make things happen in this little town," says Calhoun, who's a smidgen too old to qualify as a boomer.
Some clients ask whether Oregonians will resent them. Should they rush to replace license plates?
Calhoun tells them not to worry. As a greater share of Oregonians come from elsewhere, they're likely to embrace newcomers.
But everybody's heard the refrain: "Californians are ruining. . ." A school of thought runs deep that Oregon is better the way it is.
Advocates of slower growth say added population strains rivers, farms and forests, and increases the cost of living. They suggest freezing urban-growth boundaries or raising builders' fees.
"Why not use our intelligence and common will to set limits while we still have a quality of life we cherish?" says Connie Battaile, a concerned Ashland resident.
City councilors in Bandon raised construction fees last year to keep up with the demands of growth.
Geri Procetto -- a California transplant herself -- supported the increase. But she doesn't mind others discovering the friendly coastal town, as she and her husband did a decade ago.
After less than a year in Bandon, Procetto was recruited to run for the council. Now, the retired court reporter ticks off a litany of commitments: Chamber of commerce. Welcome Club. Tap dance class.
Bandon residents, old and new, pull each other into the fray.
"We've never had a problem," Procetto says. "We've never had anybody say, 'Oh, you're from California. Go back home.' "
This article was written by Laura Oppenheimer.
Saturday, February 25, 2006
Portland appreciation rates
In fact, all of Portland metro witnessed double-digit appreciation. Here are the rankings based from highest to lowest.
Appreciation - Area
25.0% - Tigard, Tualatin, Sherwood, Wilsonville
18.9% - North Portland
18.9% - Oregon City, Canby
17.4% - Hillsboro, Forest Grove
16.8% - Milwaukie, Clackamas
16.0% - Northeast Portland
15.8% - Lake Oswego, West Linn
14.4% - Southeast Portland
14.3% - West Portland
13.9% - Beaverton, Aloha
13.6% - Northwest Washington County
12.9% - Gresham, Troutdale
Of note, the Mt. Hood - Government Camp area skyrocketed 36.3% during the last 12 months. Looks like the snow is hot at the resorts.
Thursday, February 23, 2006
Portland appreciation compared to...
Regardless, Portland is not at the top of the list or close to it for appreciation around the country. In fact, Portland ranked 28th in the appreciation of median sales price between the fourth quarter 2004 and fourth quarter 2005.
Here are the rankings, courtesy of USA Today. Phoenix actually had appreciation of close to 50%!
By the way, why do so many people from California move to Portland? The California Association of Realtors says that only 14% of households can afford the state's $548,430 median-priced home.
Tuesday, February 21, 2006
Home security tips
Here are some tips to secure your home if you happen to be away for a while. These tips are good regardless if you live in Portland or not. Real estate matters everywhere.
Home Security Tips
"Stop all deliveries such as mail and newspapers.
Set indoor and outdoor lights and even TVs on timers.
Turn down the telephone ringer on your phone and the volume on your answering machine.
Unplug automatic garage door openers. Burglars can sometimes figure out the code and gain easy access to your home. Also lock any doors from the garage that give access to the house.
Do not close all the blinds, shutters of curtains, leaving them partially open gives an everyday-lived-in look.
If you have a willing neighbor, ask him to occasionally park in your driveway. Burglars will often survey a home at different times and on different days to study traffic patterns.
Keep your landscaped trimmed back. While you're gone have a gardener maintain the landscape.
Use your security system. If you don't have one, buy one. A good security alarm system that is connected to a dispatch center usually will qualify you for a discount on your homeowner's insurance.
Put a "beware of dog" sign on your fence; even if you don't have a dog, this can be a good deterrent.
Never leave a key under the mat, in a nearby planter, etc. -- or any other common, well-known hiding places. Many burglars don't have to force entry into a home; instead they enter through open/unlocked doors and windows or even with a key, if it's left out for them!"
These tips were provided by Phoebe Chongchua of Realty Times. The complete article can be found here.
Sunday, February 19, 2006
Average sales price of a Portland home in January
Not much. January of 2006 witnessed a continuation of the strong real estate market in Portland. Here are the average sales prices of homes in Portland. I am also including the median sales price of a house in Portland. Of note, these figures are for January only and do not reflect the last 12 months as a whole. Therefore, the prices shown here are on the high side in some cases.
Average Sales - Median Sales Price
$542,100 - $455,000 = Lake Oswego & West Linn
$428,800 - $335,000 = West Portland (SW Portland)
$330,700 - $310,600 = Tigard, Tualatin, Sherwood, Wilsonville
$319,800 - $285,000 = Milwauikie, Clackamas
$319,200 - $265,100 = Northwest Washington County
$313,700 - $285,000 = Oregon City, Canby
$278,700 - $230,000 = Hillsboro, Forest Grove
$275,100 - $236,000 = Northeast Portland (NE)
$258,100 - $242,500 = Beaverton, Aloha
$243,400 - $231,600 = Gresham, Troutdale
$238,600 - $218,000 = North Portland
$230,500 - $202,500 = Southeast Portland (SE)
Thursday, February 16, 2006
More homes for sale in Portland, OR
As it stands now, there are 3.2 months were of housing inventory. In other words, if no other homes were added to Portland's real estate market, the supply would dry up in 3.2 months. This is a large increase from the previous month's supply of 2.1 months.
While there are actually more listings for sale than a year ago, the number of homes that have sold has dropped by almost 5%.
Despite the rise in housing supply, appreciation continues to be strong in the Portland metro area. The average sales price of a house is now $297,700. A year ago, the average sales price was $254,800.
Meanwhile, the median sales price is now $245,800. A year ago, the median sales price of a home in Portland was $210,000.
New Construction remains in high demand. There was a 13% increase in the number of new homes sold in Portland and the suburbs from a year ago. The average sales price of a new house rose 16.8%, from $271,900 to the current $315,900.
New home builders in Portland saw a similar increase using the median sales price. New homes rose from a median of $217,900 to the today's $259,100.
By the way, Realtors are a free benefit to buyers when it comes to buying new construction. If you'd like to know more, just ask.
I will break down the appreciation rates, average sales price, and median sales price of areas in and around Portland in the coming days.
Wednesday, February 15, 2006
Portland weather warning
That said, if you own a house that's vacant, you should make sure it's winterized with the heat turned on. Protecting your real estate this way could save you thousands of dollars in damage from broken pipes that have frozen.
On a side note, I have some new figures about the state of Portland's real estate market. I will share them tomorrow, Thursday. I will say that housing inventory is at the highest level since January of 2005. That's good for buyers.
More tomorrow...
Sunday, February 12, 2006
Portland real estate appreciation
How much has the Portland real estate market appreciated since 2000? Here are the average sales prices and the median sales prices for the Portland metro area.
You'll see that in 2000, the average sales price of a home in Portland was $198,600, while the median sales price was $166,000. Back then, the average market time for a home to sell was 78 days.
In 2005, the numbers are quite different. The average sales price rose to $282,900. The median sales price climbed to $237,500. And the average time on market dropped to 43 days.
Avg. Sales Price - Median Sales Price
2005 = $282,900 - $237,500 * 43 days
2004 = $246,000 - $204,500 * 56 days
2003 = $222,500 - $185,500 * 63 days
2002 = $210,700 - $176,900 * 67 days
2001 = $201,000 - $169,900 * 72 days
2000 = $198,600 - $166,000 * 78 days
Thursday, February 09, 2006
Playing it safe when buying
The house has been remodeled and is a tremendous property.
During the inspection process, my buyers considered performing a sewer scope. Sewer scopes are conducted to check for root intrusions, gaps, problems (etc.) that could cause a sewer line to fail. These scopes are performed by sending a specialized camera into the line and the scope is videotaped for documentation purposes.
Discovering a broken sewer line after closing could cost a homebuyer thousands of dollars. Therefore, it's important to conduct these scopes during the inspection process. They are typically not part of a house inspection, and cost about $100.
Back to the story... In this case, my homebuyers were told (by mistake) that the sewer line had been replaced in 1997. That was nine years ago, but not really "old" for a sewer line. [Although that's not to say a sewer line couldn't have problems in that timespan.] Anyway, the home inspector said that if the sewer line had indeed been replaced, Clackamas County would have the permit on file.
We checked with Clackamas County and a permit was not on file. So for peace of mind, a sewer scope was performed. And as it turns out, the sewer line was not new or newer, but the original, dating back many, many years. Thankfully, the sewer line was in fine shape.
Moral of the story... when in doubt, play it safe. Unless there is documentation supporting past repairs, etc. taking the time to verify is a good idea. My clients spent $100 and now have peace of mind. But had they bought the home in West Linn, and then found the original sewer line needed replacement, $100 would have been quite a bargain.
Tuesday, February 07, 2006
Four bedrooms, two baths in Portland
As of today, here are the least expensive 4br/2ba homes in the Portland area. These are detached homes and not townhomes or condos. At the bottom of this list, you can click on the link to get a closer look at these properties.
List Price Area
$239,000 - North Portland
$178,000 - Northeast Portland
$197,500 - Southeast Portland
$219,950 - Gresham
$209,500 - Milwaukie
$195,000 - Oregon City
$255,000 - West Linn
$375,000 - Lake Oswego
$294,500 - Southwest Portland
$252,900 - Northwest Portland
$215,000 - Aloha
$245,000 - Beaverton
$255,000 - Tualatin
$282,900 - Sherwood
$284,999 - Tigard
$219,900 - Hillsboro
The actual listings
Sunday, February 05, 2006
RE/MAX ranks first in Portland
And as proud as I am, it’s nice to have the numbers to back up my company’s success in the Portland area.
In 2005, RE/MAX Equity Group sold more homes than any other company in the Portland area. In fact, we sold more than twice as many homes as the second and third ranked companies combined.
Here are the market results for homes sold in 2005.
Market Share - Company
16.3% - RE/MAX Equity Group
7.5% - John L. Scott
7.5% - Windermere
6.0% - Prudential
5.2% - Coldwell Banker
3.6% - Realty Trust Group
2.6% - Oregon Realty Company
2.2% - Meadows Group
2.1% - D'Ambrosio & Associates
Based on data from RMLS
Thursday, February 02, 2006
Rankings for decrease in housing inventory
Right now, there are 2.1 months of housing inventory. This means that the supply of homes would dry up in 2.1 months if no other homes were added to the market.
Here are the top ten metro areas in the country, ranked by percentage decrease in the supply of homes for sale between 3Q 2004 and 3Q 2005.
% Decrease - City
1. -50 * Danville, Ill.
2. -46 * Los Angeles
3. -42 * San Antonio
4. -39 * Mobile, Ala.
5. -33 * Austin, Texas
6. -30 * Albuquerque, NM
7. -27 * Portland, Ore.
8. -27 * Colorado Springs, Colo.
9. -21 * Greenville, S.C.
10. -11 * Amarillo, TX
